Experts talk about the steel situation - October 15

My steel: Last week, the domestic steel market price fluctuated. Although last week's spot resources were supported by the improvement of the futures and billet prices, the market price still needs demand support. Therefore, for some varieties with smooth shipments, the price has a certain difficulty and easy to fall. However, for the region, some of the market has a backlog of resources after the holiday, most of the operations are mainly maintained by fast shipments, and the price increase is restrained, so the merchants are more cautious. In the fourth quarter, it is difficult to relax the environmental protection policy. Although some regional stocks are under pressure, most of the pessimistic situation of the previous business has improved in the previous week. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic steel market price will be this week (2018.10.15-2018.10.19). Or run in a narrow range.

 

Steel House: Recently, the “Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Air Pollution in the Autumn and Winter of 2018-2019 in the Yangtze River Delta Region” (draft for comments) was issued, and the draft opinion required to promote the peak production of heavily polluted urban industrial enterprises according to local conditions. In the autumn and winter of 2017, cities with a PM 2.5 concentration exceeding 70 μg/m3 should be used for high-emissions industries such as steel and coking, and differentiated peak production from November 2018 to February 2019. It is strictly forbidden to adopt a “one size fits all” approach, failing to meet the standards for discharge of various pollutants, failing to meet the requirements for discharge permit management, or failing to complete the task of comprehensive air pollution control in the autumn and winter of 2018-2019, and adopt the peak production measures. For those restricted to the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalogue", it is necessary to increase the proportion of production restrictions or implement production suspension. The performance level of pollution emission in the industry is obviously better than that of other enterprises in the same industry. Under the premise of ensuring resources, it is not allowed to limit production. Including the previously announced Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding "2+26" attack plan, the Qiu Plains draft for comments, the key areas of autumn and winter pollution control programs have been introduced. During the National Day holiday, the domestic steel market inventories rose rapidly. Last week, construction steel inventories declined, and plate inventory growth also slowed down. The key areas are about to enter the near-term market in autumn and winter. However, the current external environment is relatively poor, and the financial market is subject to large fluctuations, which has a certain impact on the market mentality. Merchants are more cautious about the market outlook. It is expected that this week (2018.10.15-2018.10.19) the domestic steel market price is likely to fluctuate.

 

Lange Mali: Although the steel stocks and steel mills inventories have seen significant growth after the holiday, and post-holiday inventories have appeared higher than the same period last year, especially the relatively high inventory of sheet metal. However, several sudden policies have had a major impact on the operation of the steel market after the National Day holiday, and the post-holiday market is not as weak as expected. Last week, the domestic steel market was weaker than before, and the futures strong spot was weak.

At the macro level, this week is a relatively important point. This Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release various economic data for the first three quarters and September, including the September steel production data will also be released to the public. Whether the overall investment situation and infrastructure investment situation will show signs of stabilizing and stabilizing after the country has introduced more policies, whether the GDP growth rate will fall more than expected, and the data of M2, new loans and social financing scale will have What changes will affect the nerves of the market. In terms of industry, how will the environmental protection and production policies in various regions change? How will the policies of cities that have already announced policies (such as Tangshan) be implemented and implemented? Whether the regions that have not announced policies will issue new policies will also form a larger influences. From the spot level, last week's overall steel market transactions performed well after the National Day holiday, and whether this good transaction situation will continue will be a big problem. Overall, the domestic steel market maintained a good operating trend this week, the market mentality is relatively stable, and supply and demand are basically balanced. Focusing on whether the above-mentioned upcoming data will bring significant positive or negative effects to break this balance, if the data is relatively mild, the overall steel market will still maintain a relatively stable operating pattern.

 

Zhuo Chuang Wang Quotations: The overall quotation increased last week, the current period of joint increase, but the overall increase in the spot area is limited, the cumulative increase in the 40-60 yuan / ton, the increase is not large, but the transaction is good, the Friday period broke the 4100 resistance level, In the short-term, the trend is strong. At present, the mentality of the downstream and small and medium-sized households is recovering. It is expected that the market will be consolidating this week (2018.10.15-2018.10.19), and the trend is slightly stronger.

 

Han Weidong, deputy general manager of Youfa Group: After the holiday replenishment and the October construction period, the market demand is very good and the market mentality is getting better. There will be a lot of macro data released this week, and data such as GDP, investment and steel production will have a greater impact on the market. The market still maintains a volatile market. What needs to be done now is to seize the current * after the golden season, earn a good job this year after a barrel of gold, while adjusting the inventory, ready to meet the market fluctuations before the Spring Festival!